Trends covers new markets and ideas. We could have talked about remote work or telemedicine. But that would have been beating around the bush.
🔍 Problem
It’s easy to forget that our fates are tied together. As Naval Ravikant says, we have a collective immune system.
💡 Solution
To stem a health crisis we are inducing an economic one. Perhaps we do it now or have it done for us later.
This section tends to have a solution but we are making it up on the fly.
🏁 Players
Organizations
- World Health Organization (WHO)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- National Institutes of Health (NIH)
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC)
- Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)
- Civil Protection Agency
- Spanish Society of Public Health (SESPAS)
- National Health Commission of the PRC (NHC)
Previous Pandemics
- Plague of Justinian — from 541 to 542. Killed an estimated 25-100 million people.
- Black Death — from 1331 to 1353. Killed an estimated 75–200 million people.
- Russian Flu — from 1889 to 1890. Killed an estimated 1 million people.
- Spanish (Kansas) Flu — from 1918 to 1920. Killed an estimated 50-100 million people.
- Asian Flu — from 1956 to 1958. Killed an estimated 2 million people.
- Smallpox — from 300 BCE to 1977 — During the 20th century, killed an estimated 300-500 million people.
- Hong Kong Flu — from 1968 to 1969. Killed an estimated 1 million people.
- H1N1 — from 2009 to 2010. Killed an estimated 151k to 575k people.
- HIV/AIDS — from 1981 to now. Killed an estimated 32 million people as of 2018.
🔮 Predictions
- Total cases are at least 10x higher than confirmed cases. [378,860 are confirmed as of 03/23/20]
- This is not a temporary blip or several-month recession. The economy works in cycles. And this is the end of a long bull run.
- This will lead to new habits in remote work, cleanliness and other aspects of life.
- This will not be our last pandemic.
- Some markets will shrink (Co-Living, Traditional Restaurants, Luxury Clothing Brands, Amusement Parks, Hotels, Malls/Shopping Centers, Cruise Lines, Airlines, Real Esate, Car Manufacturers)
- Some markets will grow (Cloud Kitchens, Webinar Platforms, Telemedicine, Robotics/Automated Manufacturing, Remote Fitness, Online Gambling, Esports, E-Commerce, Entertainment Streaming)
☁️ Opportunities
- Find out how you can help. By using tools like HelpOurHealth.co
- Find growth. Look at which industries are hiring right now. (Healthcare, Insurance, Delivery)
- Look into the remote fitness industry (Peloton, Future, Mirror, etc)
- Review the market cycle and consider dollar-cost-averaging into index funds. Think like Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when others are fearful.”
- Organize a virtual event series such as Indie Worldwide, Userlist Happy Hours or MicroConf on Air.
😠 Haters
“This is a pandemic! Why are you talking about opportunities?”
Trends is for entrepreneurs. Also known as problem solvers. We don’t control what happens to us but we control how we respond. This is our new reality. It comes with a host of problems and opportunities. Trends is for those of us who see possibilities in the darkest times.
“You don’t know jack shit about epidemiology.”
You’re mostly right. I researched. I’m a learner. Hopefully, just like you.
🔗 Links
- ‘It’s Like a War’ — A podcast episode from The Daily – New York Times
- The Next Epidemic — Lessons from Ebola — A 2015 warning from Bill Gates
- The Coronavirus Explained & What You Should Do — An explainer video by Kurzgesagt
- I Am an ER Physician, and I Have Covid-19 — A personal account by Rosny Daniel, MD
- Coronavirus Map — A live tracker of COVID-19 cases
- 2019–20 Coronavirus Pandemic — A Wikipedia article on the pandemic
- One City’s Fight to Stop the Virus — A podcast episode from The Daily – New York Times
- Tyler Cowen on the COVID-19 Pandemic — A conversation between Tyler Cowen and Russ Roberts.
