Paid Communities: Community-as-a-Service, User-Generated Content, Reverse Network Effects

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0045 — Paid Communities

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❓ What You’ll Learn

Who offers community-as-a-service?
How to build a high-signal environment?
How to solve the chicken and egg problem?
Why do rituals matter?
How to use gamification?

🔍 Problem

Free communities tend to be noisy without a barrier to entry.

💡 Solution

Paid communities use strategic friction to build high-signal environments.

Members are invested and engaged.

Community builders are aligned with members and able to invest in great experiences.

🏁 Players

Paid Communities

Tools

Platforms

🔮 Predictions

Fractionally-owned assets will be the basis of “paid” communities. Nike MAG shareholders have more in common than those of utility companies.
Community-as-a-Service will become a common XaaS category. Late Checkout helps brands build communities.
Funds will leverage paid communities for deal flow. See MicroConf Connect (TinySeed) and Founder Summit Remote (Earnest Capital).

☁️ Opportunities

Build an audience first. Start with a newsletter, podcast or YouTube channel. Audience-to-community solves the chicken and egg problem. Trends.vc reached 20,000+ subscribers before Trends Tribe meetups were launched.
Craft a mission statement. See Compound’s Manifesto.
- Why do you gather?
- What’s your mission?
- What are your core values?
- What problems do you solve together?
Use challenges to gamify success. Launch MBA members produce 12 products in 12 months.
Create rituals. Host standups, meetups, co-building sessions and retreats to form bonds and productive habits. Trends Pro Members build compounding relationships in daily standups.
Leverage user-generated content. Hundreds of people Tweet using #100DaysOfNoCode. Bringing attention to the community.
Nurture one-on-one connections to build a stronger community. Trends Pro Members have weekly one-on-ones along with daily standups.
Build growth tools to draw members into your paid community. See the No-Code Marketplace directory, toolkit and book.

🔑 Key Lessons

Price is multi-dimensional. Compound requires you to submit your best writing to apply. This is non-monetary friction.
Paid community members have skin in the game. Investment limits noise and boosts engagement.
You’re the average of the 5 people you surround yourself with. Paid communities raise the average.
Beware of reverse network effects. Scale changes everything. Especially niche communities. Engagement drops as communities grow.

😠 Haters

“You already covered this.”
Yes and I’ve covered No-Code, Bootstrap Funds and Micro Private Equity more than once. There’s still more to learn.

“Most of these communities are online.”
Google jiu-jitsu, church, country club or university if you’re looking for offline paid communities.

“Some online paid communities are built without an audience.”
Cold outreach, personal networks and borrowed credibility can work.

“Paid communities are exclusionary.”
Yes. So are “free” communities. You can’t pay to become a Navy SEAL but the price can be your life. Price is more than money.

“What about community fatigue?”
Fatigue is a forcing function for quality. The same goes for newsletters.

🔗 Links

What’s your favorite paid community? • The tweet behind this report.
Turning an Audience Into a Community • Girls’ Night In went from a newsletter to a community.
Come for the tool, stay for the network • How to overcome the chicken and egg problem.

🙏 Thanks

Thanks to Kieran Ball (Launch MBA), Max Haining (100 Days of No Code), Stew Fortier (Compound), Yaro Bagriy (Newsletter Crew), Jeremy Au HF (Monk’s Hill Ventures), Rick Lindquist (LegUpHealth), Logan Johnson, Aadil Maan (Nike), Marek Janetzke, Jose Bermejo (Startup Builder), Paul Martin (Integrity Music), Janel Loi (Newsletter OS) and Vikrant Duggal (Consulting Club). We had a great time jamming on this report.

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35 Paid Communities (191% More)
21 Tools (250% More)
33 Tools for Presales (371% More)
7 Predictions (133% More)
14 Opportunities (100% More)
8 Key Lessons (100% More)
10 Summarized Links (233% More)

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(📈 Pro) How to borrow credibility to build your community?
(📈 Pro) How to boost engagement?
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(📈 Pro) Why does decentralized leadership matter?
(📈 Pro) How to use non-monetary friction?
(📈 Pro) How to find community-member fit?
and a lot more…

Digital Products: Micro-Economies, Subscriptions, Scale

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0040 — Digital Products

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🔍 Problem

We need your knowledge and experience. But providing 1:1 help doesn’t scale.

💡 Solution

You can help at scale with digital products. While divorcing your time and money.

🏁 Players

Airtable Databases
- Cyberleads
- Swipe Page
Courses
Notion Templates
eBooks
Webflow Templates
- Telly
- SendBox
- Collateral
- Nunito
- Terso

🔮 Predictions

More products will launch into micro-economies. Think Notion, Webflow, Figma and Canva. Million-dollar businesses, like Elegant Themes, are built on WordPress.
More people will combine community with digital products. This leads to network effects and members learning from each other. Makerpad combines community with tutorials.
Dynamic digital products will become common. See STACK$, a live Airtable database by Michael Gill. Notion docs will join the fray once Notion’s API is released.

☁️ Opportunities

Build an audience first. This forces you to understand prospective customers, lowers your customer acquisition costs and leads to repeatable sales. Jack Butcher compounds his audience between courses, community, planners and wallpapers.
Add a community to your digital product. This curbs piracy and allows members to learn from each other. See Flowmingo from Mackenzie Child.
Get ideas on what to build next from your community. The introductions channel in Trends Pro reveals that most members use Notion. Should there be a Notion-themed Deal of the Week? 👀
Presell to gauge demand and boost urgency with presell pricing. Failory used presell pricing for the Product-Market Fit book.
Borrow trust and attention from affiliates. Leverage influencers and platforms like AppSumo or (shameless plug) Trends.vc — Deal of the Week.
Establish predictable and compounding revenue with subscriptions. See Product Explorer, Egghead and Code with Mosh.

🔑 Key Lessons

Digital products give you leverage. As Naval says, “Fortunes require leverage. Business leverage comes from capital, people, and products with no marginal cost of replication (code and media).”
Build a value ladder. Have a free offer and others that gradually increase in price.
Build a content ladder. Make the simplest version of your product first. Learn and iterate fast.
Every business model has a weakness. Most digital products have unpredictable revenue. Services have high marginal costs. Most SaaS businesses have no moat. There’s no free lunch. Pick your pain. Then stack business models to hedge the downsides.

😠 Haters

“Lots of people succeed without an audience.”
Yes. And this is a riskier proposition. You depend on virality and your ability to capture some of that momentum and convert eyeballs into an audience for repeatable sales. Max Rand writes about how he reached #2 on Product Hunt without an audience.

“What about doing direct sales?”
This works. But your LTV has to justify it. And do you have leverage if you can’t sell at scale?

“What if someone steals my idea or pirates my product?”
Content is a magnet. Community is a moat.

“What about subscription fatigue?”
Subscriptions don’t make sense for every product. Fatigue forces quality up.

“You missed digital product categories.”
Chances are, you can find them in Trends Pro.

🔗 Links

Who should I talk to about digital products? • The tweet behind this report.
Trends #0030 — Audience-First Products • The path towards low CAC, defensibility and repeatable sales.
The Passion Economy and the Future of Work • Monetize your individuality.

🙏 Thanks

Thanks to Jose Bermejo (The Startup Builder), Mark Bowley (Tiny Design Lessons), Mackenzie (Flowmingo), Marie Poulin (Notion Mastery), Len Markidan (Podia), Alex Pethick (Nutriso), Tem (Optemization), Max Rand (Startup Growth Kit), Nicolás Cerdeira (Failory), Gene (Swipe Page), Janel Loi (Newsletter Operating System), Ash (Bad Unicorn), Yarty Kim (Kick Ass Letters), Traf (Super.so), Doc Williams (Build with Me) and Ben Issenmann (Supercreative). We had a great time jamming on this report.

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17 Types of Digital Products (240% More)
81 Digital Products (224% More)
6 Predictions (100% More)
17 Opportunities (183% More)
8 Key Lessons (100% More)
10 Summarized Links (233% More)

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(📈 Pro) How to build a micro-monopoly?
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(📈 Pro) How to reduce market risk and improve your odds of success?
(📈 Pro) What are the benefits of niching?
(📈 Pro) How to boost perceived value?
(📈 Pro) How to use digital products to build an email list?
(📈 Pro) How to bundle with yourself?
(📈 Pro) How can digital products help SaaS businesses?
PLUS a 25-minute episode on this report
and a lot more…

Virtual Events: Interactivity, Form Factors, Event Marketplaces

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0037 — Virtual Events

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🔍 Problem

Time, location, health and financial constraints hinder physical meetings.

💡 Solution

Virtual events reduce these concerns. And lead to experiences that are impossible to physically recreate. For better or worse.

🏁 Players

Virtual Events

Tools

Types

🔮 Predictions

We’ll see new form factors. 1-on-1 matching exploded with tools like Icebreaker, Lunchclub, Bevy, Hopin and Run The World. Is Gather (2-D Video Calls) next?
There will be more virtual event marketplaces. Think Airbnb’s Online Experiences and Winekey. Tools like Zoom and Run The World are also getting into distribution.
More events will have omni-directional engagement. With no “audience.” Only participants who shape the narrative.

☁️ Opportunities

Make it interactive. Keep your audience engaged with Q&As, polls, challenges and trivia. MicroConf Remote gave founders a challenge. Get a customer testimonial and bring it back.
Start sawdusting.
- Use registration information to build your list (Rita Barry)
- Distribute talks through your pod c ast (MicroConf OnAir)
- Distribute talks through your YouTube channel (Everything Marketplaces)
- Turn user-requested songs into playlists (OBFH)
Bundle to raise your average order value. Combine your paid newsletter, paid community, digital products or physical products with virtual event access. Teaching an online bartending class? Offer to ship the shaker and glasses.

🔑 Key Lessons

Virtual events are better at some things. And worse at others. In-person events give us high-fidelity experiences. Virtual events can remove space and time. And create worlds.
Start with the end in mind. Why are you creating this event? How will participants be transformed? What’s your north star?

😠 Haters

“Virtual events won’t replace face-to-face interactions.”
Yes. And they’re not meant to. Each type of event excels at different things.

“1:1 matching isn’t new. What about Chatroulette?“
Smartphones, tablets and wireless headphones weren’t new either. Then Apple came in. Lunchclub, Bevy, Icebreaker, Run The World and Hopin are popularizing this feature.

“You said that virtual events reduce time constraints. What about time zones?”
Reduce. Not eliminate.

🔗 Links

Best virtual event you’ve been to? • The tweet behind this report.
How We Hosted a 55 Speaker Virtual Summit in Just 10 Weeks • Foti Panagiotakopoulos shares how he launched the GrowthMentor Summit using no-code tools like Zapier and WordPress.
HeySummit Speaker Directory • A growth tool/m a rketplace from HeySummit that helps speakers find gigs and organizers find speakers.

🙏 Thanks

Thanks to Anthony Castrio (Indie Worldwide), Rob Walling (TinySeed + MicroConf), Nicolás Cerdeira (Failory), Matt Middleton (Advisor Circle), Jack Cohen (FirstMark), Ethan Jones (Tools for MGMT), Karl Mc Carthy (Tito + Campfire), Joey Womack (Goodie Nation) and Brian Ardinger (Inside Outside). We had a great time jamming on this report.

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27 Virtual Events (285% More)
173 Tools for Virtual Events (2371% More)
12 Types of Virtual Events (100% More)
4 Key Lessons (100% More)
8 Predictions (166% More)
10 Predictions (233% More)
10 Summarized Links (233% More)

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Micro-Marketplaces: No-Code, Niches, Better Experiences

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0034 — Micro-Marketplaces

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🔍 Problem

General marketplaces lack focus.

💡 Solution

Micro-Marketplaces focus on a niche. And build an experience around it.

Marketplace	Micro-Marketplace
Monster.com (All Jobs)	Remote Ok (Remote Jobs)
BizBuySell (All Businesses)	MicroAcquire (SaaS Businesses)
Freelancer.com (All Freelancers)	Unicorn Factory (NZ Freelancers)

MicroAcquire aims at SaaS businesses. Displaying recurring revenue, customer acquisition costs and number of customers.

BizBuySell is for all businesses. But food trucks don’t have recurring revenue.

📘 Terms

Marketplace
A business that connects buyers and sellers.

Micro-Marketplace
A marketplace that focuses on a niche. And designs around it. Leading to a better experience for buyers and sellers.

🏁 Players

Micro-Marketplaces

Notion Everything — Notion Templates
Studiotime — Music Studios
The Quiver — Surfboards
Modsy — Interior Designers
MicroAcquire — SaaS Businesses
Good Dog — Dogs
PierShare — Boat Docks
TOOLBX — Construction Supplies
Stackraft — Remote Engineering Jobs

(📈 Trends Pro) Database of 50+ Micro-Marketplaces

🔮 Predictions

No-Code will lower the barrier to build marketplaces. Studiotime uses ShareTribe. PierShare uses Bubble. Orapa uses Webflow and Tribe.so. (via Yoroomie and Stan)
AI will circumvent service supply constraints. MDacne analyzes skin and provides treatment plans. Otter transcribes audio. Sidestepping Teladoc and Rev.

☁️ Opportunities

Solve the chicken-or-egg problem. Here are 19 ways and two more:
- Provide a Service (Slice answers phones for restaurants)
- Piggyback on an Audience (Influencers promote Cameo)
Build a marketplace with no-code. And focus on the hard part. Code is being commoditized.
Niche. RubyRide launched in a suburb of Pittsburg. MentorCruise focused on engineering mentors. Even The Everything Store started with books.
Attract supply with growth tools. See Zestimate and Carculator. Thumbtack made it easy to post to Craigslist and Thumbtack. (via Andrew)
Scratch your own itch.
- Georgene built Fairygodboss after looking for a job.
- Dominic built MentorCruise after looking for a mentor.
- Andrew built MicroAcquire after looking for a business.

🔑 Key Lessons

Start small. Micro-marketplaces can lead to more verticals. Likewise, Micro-SaaS and DTC Brands lead to bigger plays.
Scale changes everything. Most marketplaces are curated at first. Then evolve. Game mechanics help maintain quality at scale.

😠 Haters

“Your definition of a marketplace (a business that connects buyers and sellers) is wrong. What about managed marketplaces with inventory risk?
A business that connects demand and supply is also wrong. It includes wholesalers and retailers. 🤷‍♂️ Embrace imperfection.

“MDacne and Otter’s models aren’t perfect.”
Nothing is.

“Every category can’t have it’s own micro-marketplace.”
Maybe not. It’s a battle between the benefits of having everyone in one place (general) and the benefits of specific form factors (micro).

“You didn’t mention frequency, AOV, monogamy, take rates or critical mass.”
Look out for more on marketplaces.

“Micro-Marketplaces? These are vertical marketplaces.”
Sure. But can we admit? Alliteration is fun.

🔗 Links

Who’s building a marketplace? • The tweet behind this report.
All Things Marketplaces • Fabrice Grinda on SaaS tools, curating and locking in supply.
Hierarchy of Marketplaces • Sarah Tavel on the levels of marketplaces and what makes them special.

🙏 Thanks

Thanks to Andrew Gazdecki, Jeff Ericson, Vartika Manasvi, Nate Ritter, Dominic Monn, Stan Rymkiewicz, Gali Meiri, T.D. Bryant, Bobby Gilbert and Yoroomie for being great thought partners.

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56 Micro-Marketplaces (522% More)
5 Predictions (150% More)
12 Opportunities (140% More)
5 Key Lessons (150% More)
10 Summarized Links (233% More)

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(📈 Pro) Which company locks in supply and demand with one tool?
(📈 Pro) How to use strategic friction to create balance?
(📈 Pro) How to sidestep network effects and leapfrog incumbents?
(📈 Pro) Why will there be more service marketplaces?
(📈 Pro) How to maintain quality and churn bad supply?
(📈 Pro) Why will there be more managed marketplaces?
(📈 Pro) How to use risk reversal to grow your marketplace?
and a lot more…

No-Code: Agencies, Productized Services, Small Teams

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0033 — No-Code

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🔍 Problem

Recreating wheels (and apps) wastes time, money and energy.

💡 Solution

No-Code tools help you solve well-understood problems. Blogs, online stores, games, marketplaces, mobile apps and more can be built without writing code.

🏁 Players

Products

Tools

Founders

🔮 Predictions

Using no-code will be a competitive advantage. Saving time, money and energy. Allowing you to build (and change) faster and cheaper than competitors.
No-code leads to bundling and unbundling. Sharetribe, Anchor, Podia and Substack are monolithic. Studiotime, Swimmy and Wheelprice are specific.

☁️ Opportunities

Start small with basic no-code tools like Carrd and Pory before moving on.
Join #100DaysOfNoCode for social accountability.
Start a no-code agency. Wit Suma, a Trends Pro member, launched a no-code agency building growth tools. See Thinkbox, BuildLab, Twindeavor, Luhhu and Finsweet. Services can be your gateway to products and scalable income.
Use no-code tools to build a productized service. Lead Cookie ($50k/m) and Scribly ($30k/m) use Zapier and Airtable. Jake Jorgovan works 5 hours a week. As Lead Cookie earns $50,000 a month. (Via Seth)

🔑 Key Lessons

No-code tools democratize leverage. When anyone can build. Authenticity outweighs access.
Leverage amplifies judgement.
Code, capital, manufacturing, (paid) acquisition and ideas are being commoditized.

😠 Haters

“No-Code?! There’s actually code.”
But you aren’t writing it. Some hate this term. But alternatives have too many syllables to win a marketing war. Haters complain about “no-code” and make it more popular.

“No-code will eliminate developer jobs.”
Developers will spend less time on CRUD apps. And more time on hard problems. Michael Gill and Yaro Bagriy use no-code tools to boost productivity.

“All problems can’t be solved with no-code.”
Correct. Absolutes are usually false.

“No-code tools can’t scale.”
Most can. But this is a good problem.

“Don’t call your agency a ‘no-code’ agency.”
Some search for no-code agencies in need of speed and accessibility. Build two funnels with the same service. Capture both segments.

🔗 Links

Who’s down to talk no-code? • The tweet behind this report.
How to Build • How to build Shopify, LinkedIn, Airbnb, Facebook, Amazon, Product Hunt and more without writing code.
Serendipity as a Service (Random Pizza) • No-code tools help Whit Anderson build and operate RandomPizza.
Small Teams • A list of teams behind billion-dollar companies. Abstraction breeds leverage.

🙏 Thanks

Thanks to Samuel Thompson, Seth Kramer, Edmund Amoye, Max Haining, Ben Tossell, Ash, Yoroomie, Mark Magnuson, Dan Parry, Lacey Kesler, Isaiah Weaver and Steven Gunn for their help with this report.

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30 No-Code Apps (233% More)
32 No-Code Tools (255% More)
32 No-Code Founders (220% More)
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8 Opportunities (100% More)
7 Key Lessons (133% More)
10 Summarized Links (150% More)

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(📈 Pro) Why will no-code communities be more diverse than developer communities?
(📈 Pro) How to build games without writing code?
and a lot more…

Audience-First Products: Moats, Founding Influencers, Optionality

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0030 — Audience-First Products

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🔍 Problem

You need to understand and reach customers.

💡 Solution

Build trust before you build products.

🏁 Players

Product	Type	Source
LetterDrop	Aggregator	KP
Userlist	SaaS	Jane Portman & Benedikt Deicke
Bite-Size Python	Book	April Speight
Earnest Capital	Fund	Tyler Tringas
The Tim Ferriss Show	Podcast	Tim Ferriss
Power-Up Podcasting	Course	Pat Flynn
Groupon	Marketplace	ThePoint.com
Chicken + Beer	Restaurant	Ludacris
Virginia Black	Liquor	Drake
Roc Nation Sports	Agency	Jay-Z
Ministry of Testing	Community	Rosie Sherry

🔮 Predictions

Startups will seek founding influencers like Justin Jackson of Transistor.fm.
Audience-first funds will become popular. Ben Tossell and Sahil Lavingia will leverage their audiences to get deal flow, find LPs and help portfolio companies.

☁️ Opportunities

Choose your channel and build an audience. Use YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn, Instagram or Facebook. But don’t stop there. To reduce platform risk, use these as funnels. Not destinations.
Get feedback from your audience. Failory surveys subscribers to find pain points. Bram Kanstein used Twitter to get 135 pre-launch subscribers. Kalo Yankulov used a blog to get $4,000 in pre-sales. (Via Nico)
Leverage your audience to find investors, suppliers and employees. Ben Tossell uses Twitter to find customers and hire. Now he’s raising a fund.
Use an audience-first approach to find your dream job. Iheanyi (Github) and April (Microsoft) have audiences, optionality and side hustles. Social profiles are replacing resumes.
Use gamification to grow your audience. Pieter Levels gained more than 10,000 followers with a giveaway. See the Makerpad Challenge.

🔑 Key Lessons

Audience-building is a forcing function to find and understand customers.
Your audience is your moat.
An audience gives you optionality. You can sell products, raise funds, hire employees, get jobs, endorsements, affiliates and more.

😠 Haters

“This isn’t new.”
Common knowledge isn’t common practice.

“You mention agencies, restaurants and conferences. These are not products.”
🤷‍♂️ Use your imagination.

“If I build it, they will come.”
Tell that to Stephen King. Who wrote under a pen name in relative obscurity. Until his identity was revealed. Audience outweighs product.

“This doesn’t always work.”
Indeed. There are broke celebrities. Blame execution not efficacy.

“What if I build the wrong audience?”
Start with the end in mind. Who do you want to help? Who do you enjoy spending time with? Educate or entertain them.

“Is paid acquisition useless?”
No. Use it for validation. And arbitrage opportunities. Not for survival. Unit economics change fast when you bid for attention.

“Gamification only attracts those who want prizes. Not my product.”
Make your product the prize.

🔗 Links

On Linear Commerce • Media and commerce are merging.
12 Startups in 12 Months • Pieter Levels built an audience by building in public.
My Journey From Quitting My Job to Building 7 Apps and $1,000+ MRR • Andrey Azimov followed in Pieter’s footsteps.

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(📈 Pro) Why is it important to niche and build a direct
with your audience?
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Drop Culture: Manufacturing Scarcity, Financial Derivatives, Blind Auctions

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0026 — Drop Culture

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🔍 Problem

We are status seeking monkeys, as Eugene Wei says.

💡 Solution

Brands manufacture scarcity (and status) to drive sales.

Constricting supply amplifies word of mouth. Everyone talks. Those who were able to get it, missed it and hate it. They spread the word.

Drop culture has moved from fashion to software and experiences.

🏁 Players

Products

Brands

Platforms

🔮 Predictions

Influencers will hoard items, influence culture then release them for profit. The song, RAF, made Raf Simmons’ items skyrocket in value. What if A$AP Rocky bought pieces before releasing the song?
ETFs and financial derivatives will form around streetwear. StockX holds IPOs (Initial Product Offerings). Some users trade items without taking possession.
Platforms will get unbundled. Chrono24 exists outside of watch categories on StockX and eBay.

☁️ Opportunities

Become a reseller. Brands must create scarcity for drops. Unmet demand is your margin. Convert access into capital.
Use drop notifications to get emails, phone numbers and downloads. You can text 917-540-3113 or download the MSCHF app for alerts. Cryptocurrency airdrops use a similar strategy.
Post items on Instagram and run blind auctions via DMs. Take the best price.
Drop access to your paid community. The Book of Resale randomly opens spots in the group. (From a Trends Pro, Ethan Jones)
Manufacture scarcity. Create an imbalance of supply and demand. Don’t have a large audience? Constrict supply even more. A stadium is scarce for Taylor Swift. Your version may be a tiny desk.
Weave items into stories. Michael Jordan’s “Flu Game” shoes fetched $104,000. Sell items featured in your YouTube, Instagram and TikTok (🤞) videos. Let your audience own part of the story.
Reverse engineer product market fit and make scarcity a side effect. Accept ideal users. Put others on a waiting list.

😠 Haters

“This is exclusionary.”
That’s the point. Drops fail without scarcity. They also subsidize art for the masses.

“It’s not all about status.”
Some of us find streetwear, art and experiences interesting without artificial scarcity. But this report is about drop culture. And those drawn to hype.

🔗 Links

A Walk with Mr. MSCHF — A rare interview with Gabe Whaley, founder of MSCHF.
StockX’s Josh Luber — Get the origin story and vision of StockX.
7 Marketing Lessons From Drop Culture — Find out why drops work.
How Two Sneaker Moguls Are Bringing Drop Culture to the Whiskey World — A duo uses drop culture to sell whisky for $185 per bottle.
Reinventing the Resell — A ~~argumentative~~ passionate panel represents different perspectives in drop culture. From marketplaces to manufacturing and retail.

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14 Opportunities (100% More)
12 Summarized Links (140% More)
25 Product Drops (150% More)
7 Predictions (133% More)
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(📈 Pro) How to craft an offer for your Superfans?
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Digital Products: Validating Demand, Value Ladders, Piracy

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0022 Digital Products

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🔍 Problem

Selling time doesn’t scale.

💡 Solution

Digital products, like eBooks, courses and fonts, allow you to help at scale. You can build once, sell twice, as Jack Butcher says.

🏁 Players

Products

Name	Creator	Type
Maker Minions Workshop	Michael Gill	Course
Your Productized Consulting Guide	Jane Portman	eBook
Substation Theme	Dan Rowden	Ghost Theme
Bite-Size Python	April Speight	eBook
Drrac	Martin Ryden	Carrd Theme
Profitable Newsletters	Chris Osborne	Course
Zero to Sold	Arvid Kahl	eBook
4 Week Bariatric Diet	Kristin Willard	Meal Plan
The Standout Developer	Randall Kanna	eBook
Scrapbook	Kacper Staniul	Airtable Database
SEO Cheat-Sheet	Benas Leonavicius	eBook
React for Data Visualization	Swizec Teller	Course
ORBITAL	Kyle Beats	Drum Kit
EcoShot	Stuart Powell	eBook
Simple Slides	Paul Burke	PowerPoint Slides
Build Once, Sell Twice	Jack Butcher	Course
FRIENDLY AMBITIOUS NERD	Visakan Veerasamy	eBook
Standard Financial Model	Taylor Davidson	Spreadsheet
The $10K Website Process	Ran Segall	Course
Marketing for Developers	Justin Jackson	eBook and Course
Imposter Syndrome	Pete Codes	eBook
PLAN 915-8	Tumbleweed Tiny House Company	House Plan
No-Code MVP	Bram Kanstein	Course
Watercolor Teacher	Kristi Dominguez	Printables
100 Business Models	Gennaro Cuofano	eBook
McDonnell Douglas FA-18C Hornet	Dmitriy Sidelev	3D Model
Better Sheets	Andrew Kamphey	Course
Twitter for No-Coders	Jens Lennartsson	eBook
Font Personality	Taughnee Stone Golubović	Swipe File
No Code MBA	Seth Kramer	Course
Drinking Board Game	CatAndBru	Printable Board Game

🔮 Predictions

The line will blur between digital and physical products. Platforms like Printful and Printify allow you to turn digital products into mugs, shirts, 3D printed parts, paintings, stickers and more.
Digital product platforms will be unbundled. Look at sites like BeatStars, Houseplans and MyFonts. Individual platforms will be built to sell swipe files, spreadsheets or printables. The same happened with Craigslist.

☁️ Opportunities

Build an audience to learn about customers needs. Start a newsletter or podcast. Leverage your audience from YouTube, Twitter, Instagram and beyond.
Presell to verify demand. This will force you to clarify what you are building. Those who pre-purchase can offer feedback.
Offer early bird pricing. Reward early supporters with discounted prices.
Leverage niche communities for distribution. Answer questions and support others on platforms like Indie Hackers, Reddit and Product Hunt.
Build a content ladder to validate demand. Start with tweets and blog posts. Then move to books and courses. You can save time if early content does not resonate.
Combine digital products with paid communities to curb piracy and unpredictable revenue. Community can’t be pirated.
Allow “lifetime access” to courses and databases to boost perceived value. This translates into real value if you provide updates.
Build a value ladder. Have a foot-in-the-door offer that delivers massive value. This builds trust. Happy customers are more likely to make larger purchases.
Read the report on online courses if you want to make a course.
Build a digital product fast by curating. Create a swipe file of great UI designs, cold emails or landing page copy.

😠 Haters

“What about piracy?”
Every business model has weaknesses. Digital products suffer from piracy and unpredictable revenue. Niche communities have reverse network effects. Agencies have high marginal costs. Most SaaS businesses have no moat. There’s no free lunch. Pick your pain. Then stack business models to hedge the downsides.

“Digital product is a euphemism for information product.”
Nice try 😉 Information products include eBooks and courses. Digital products also include WordPress themes, typefaces, comics, floor plans and 3D models.

“You didn’t include apps.”
I excluded apps and subscription products to control the scope of this report.

🔗 Links

Leverage Information • How to leverage knowledge from your current field to create digital products.
The Ladders of Wealth Creation • A classic post on improving the quality of your income over time.
Open Report • 8 months of sales and expenses from Daniel Vassallo.
Creating Passive Income with Digital Products • How Jen Wagner makes money by selling fonts.

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Angel Investing: Syndicates, Belief Capital, Investment Pre-Mortems

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0018 Angel Investing

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🔍 Problem

Founders need early believers, advice, networks and capital.

Most investors wait on the sidelines until traction is clear.

💡 Solution

Angel investors are early believers. They invest in founders with billion dollar ideas and expect for most to fail.

It’s counterintuitive. You can profitably lose 9 out of 10 bets if the winner returns 30x.

🏁 Players

Angel Investors

Angel-Funded

Syndicate Leads

🔮 Predictions

More investors will expect founders to have a product ‘in the wild’ before investing. This signals resourcefulness. Especially for non-technical founders. No-code tools lower the barrier to entry.
More influencers will get paid in equity. Joe Rogan got a stake in Onnit in exchange for promotion. This strategy aligns long-term interests with influencers.

☁️ Opportunities

For Angel Investors

Build a personal brand for proprietary deal flow. Make it clear how you help founders: expertise, network, audience, etc.
Start a blog, podcast, newsletter and stay active on Twitter. Widen your luck surface area and stay top of mind for founders.
Keep an investment decision journal. Angel investing has slow feedback loops. This gives us time to fool ourselves about why we did or didn’t invest. Journals lock thoughts in time and keep us honest.
Avoid the risk of ruin. Most suggest limiting angel investments to 5-10% of your net worth. Naval Ravikant says don’t get into angel investing to make money because you probably won’t.
Do investment premortems. Ask yourself, “If this investment fails, why did it?” Negative visualization helps mitigate/identify the riskiest parts of a deal. (Thanks to Leon Lin for this link)
Write fantasy investment deal memos before you start investing. This is how Vedika Jain landed at Weekend Fund. VCs do this too.

For Founders

Take some money off the table and join a syndicate. Angel investors hedge risk but most founders don’t.
Keep a decision journal. This helps you find patterns, identify bias and improve your decisions.
Build an audience first. Leverage your reach to build a startup and raise capital.

😠 Haters

“How dare you write this?! Are you an angel investor?”
Not yet. And that almost stopped me. But I have a growth mindset. You should try it. 😉

“You forgot some angels.”
AngelList has more than 42,000 investors on the platform. The Center for Venture Research estimated that there were 258,000 active angel investors in 2017.

Trends.vc is known for brevity.

Furthermore, some venture capitalists are mistaken for angel investors. What’s the difference? VCs take less risk, have LPs, invest bigger checks at later stages and move with teams instead of solo or syndicates. Let me know if you’re interested in a report on VCs.

🔗 Links

Angel: How to Invest in Technology Startups (Jason Calacanis)
- Invest in founders. “Would you buy stock in this person?”
- Start with syndicates and small checks.
- Negotiate pro rata and information rights.
How to Be an Angel Investor (Paul Graham)
- Start with syndicates.
- Understand dilution and valuations.
- Understand what makes a good founder.
How to Be an Angel Investor (NavalRavikant and BabakNivi)
- Think of yourself as a patron of innovation.
- Balance your portfolio with ultra-safe investments.
- Investing in groups makes for better decision making.
Memo — YC provides great questions to ask yourself as a founder.
The Underrated Types of Capital That No One Is Talking About — KP looks at intangible benefits that angel investors offer founders. Beyond financial capital. They offer belief capital.

Open Startups: Exhaust Data, Transparency, Open Makers

On the surface this is about open startups. It’s really about a lot more. Another name? How to Profit from Transparency.

This is the free version of Trends PRO #0015 — Open Startups

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🔍 Problem

Startups have to cut through noise to stay top of mind for customers. And prospective employees.

💡 Solution

Open startups tell a story (mostly) with exhaust data.

Revenue, page views, salaries and more. Data generated from business activities.

This is a marketing strategy. Not only for customers. But prospective employees.

In 2013, Buffer listed staff salaries publicly. Job applications doubled. Jumping to 2,886 from the 1,263 they received 30 days prior.

🏁 Players

Open Startups

Open Makers

Makers sharing metrics and stories.

Open Platforms

🔮 Predictions

Exhaust data will become more publicly availableandaccurate.
- Site Traffic
  - SimilarWeb
  - Alexa
  - Ahrefs
- Foot Traffic
- Revenue
- Salaries
We’ll see the rise of the Open Maker. These founders track and share their work. They are sawdusting. Gaining upside from exhaust data that would otherwise go unused.

☁️ Opportunities

Remove information asymmetries and profit from transparency. Need ideas?
- Salaries
  - PayScale Glassdoor
- Home Services
- Used Cars
- Flights
- Insurance
Decide if you should run an Open Startup. Ask yourself…
- Do I have a moat? If not, you may reverse course like SnapShooter and Transistor.fm.
- Do my customers care? If not, why are you doing this? See the conversation between Amar Ghose, Patrick Campbell and I.
- Do prospective employees care? Will this attract talent?
- Do I need accountability? What gets measured gets managed. More so in public.

🔗 Links

Transparency — This TED radio hour episode tells stories of transparency. Covering everything from salaries to CIA operations.
The End of Asymmetric Information — Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok take a deep dive into information problems and their effects.
Doubling Down Instead of Shutting Down — Nathan Barry is the founder and CEO of ConvertKit. In an interview with Eric Siu, he said “…another important thing for us is storytelling. I want you to buy ConvertKit not just because it’s the best tool for your business. I want you to buy because of the team and the story and who we are and what we’re building.”
‘100% copycat’ — Pierre de Wulf, co-founder of ScrapingBee, tweets about downside of sharing numbers. This is why moats matter.
Research: Gender Pay Gaps Shrink When Companies Are Required to Disclose Them — Denmark required companies over 35 employees to disclose gender wage gaps and the gap to shrunk to 7% from 17.5% between 2003 to 2008.